Alex Kimbrell

April 18, 2026

Using Early-Down EPA To Frame NFL Offense

A starter article showing how expected points added can describe passing aggressiveness and script quality.

nflepapassinganalytics

Early-down passing often predicts how an offense performs in obvious passing situations later in the game.

If you model expected points as E[P]E[P], then for a play ii, EPAi=E[P]afterE[P]before\text{EPA}_i = E[P]_{\text{after}} - E[P]_{\text{before}}.

Baseline table

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